Best bets for college football weekend

Louisville at Kentucky, noon ET, ESPN

We had a little bit of a bounce-back performance last week with the picks, tallying a 4-2 record — including nailing all three big games. The defensive team speed is bad — and will doubtless be exposed — but Tennessee has one of the top offensive lines in the country. Vandy at South Carolina, 7 p.m. . ET, CBS

Mississippi State is not a good football team. First, Outkick told you that Louisville’s schedule is so weak that 26 different teams would be favored in every game. ET.

2. Mississippi State at Auburn, 7 p.m. ET, ABC

And if I’m wrong on this, you guys can call me a complete and total idiot. UCLA at Nebraska, noon ET, ABC

The game that Tennessee fans will be watching while peeking through their fingers. Tennessee at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. Yes, they put a whipping on Florida, which really launched Louisville as a “top 10 team” story. That puts us at 8-6 through the first two weeks of the season. I’m predicting a deep Freeze for Texas.

It’s worth keeping an eye on this one. Getting A&M plus a touchdown is just too good to pass up here. Wisconsin at Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

So without further ado, let’s see if I can make you guys some money again this week.

I would have taken Oregon at -20, where this line opened.

Hugh Freeze had to be delirious with joy when he watched that Texas defense against BYU. The Commodores’ defense struggled with Ole Miss’s offense, but South Carolina doesn’t do anything fancy.

This is the second-best game of the day, and most of us will struggle to find it on television.

I believe that Louisville’s dominance is a bit of a myth.

That’s why I think the Vols cover even though Oregon wins by double digits.

This is the second-largest line in the history of Tennessee football. Auburn isn’t a good football team yet, but I think by the time November rolls around they will be good.

I think Ole Miss wins this game outright, and I thought this even before Texas went out and looked awful against BYU.

10. Ole Miss at Texas, 8 p.m. games to be keeping tabs on.

Nebraska will either win by three or lose by 30. They also lost to really bad/mediocre Syracuse and UConn teams.

I think Alabama will win this game something like 31-27. Can you guys finish the night off with me? This is a huge game for both teams and both conferences here.

I’ve also included my viewer guide so that you can follow along with me all day long watching games.

So, drum roll . (Granted, one of those teams was Kentucky). Second, look at Louisville’s 2012 schedule. But the Cardinals beat only two teams by more than 10 points last year. Can he make many? I doubt it. Can Butch Jones keep it respectable, or is Oregon intent on sending a message that they can run up the score on SEC teams, too?

Mississippi State at Auburn -6

OK, here’s my viewer guide:

I don’t think Cal will pull off the upset, but should the Buckeyes be a little bit nervous about this trip? I think so.

Even if most of y’all will be unable to watch this game on the Longhorn Network.

I’m going to admit something to y’all: This game terrifies me.

I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen here.

This week I’m going with the five biggest SEC games and then, to me, the second-best game of the weekend, which is Ole Miss at Texas.

I told you, I think this game will be closer than expected. I’m taking Kentucky plus two touchdowns.

That’s just too many points, I think.

Why is this line hanging here?

Tennessee at Oregon -28

Tennessee’s not great, but the Vols aren’t awful either. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnny Manziel makes a play or two to swing this in the other direction. (The Vols were 30-point underdogs at Florida in the first year of the Lane Kiffin era).

We really don’t know much about either of these teams. You might as well get used to typing in our station.

You guys can start talking Twitter trash to me early if Louisville immediately jumps out to a three-touchdown lead.

Ole Miss at Texas -3

Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M

Let’s roll, you degenerates.

I tweeted about the opening line early Sunday morning, Louisville -7.5, and by the time I landed back in Nashville, Tenn., the line had moved all the way to Louisville -13.5.

Ninety-five percent of all the money is on Louisville, and we’ve finally settled at two touchdowns.

Because Vegas believes that the Louisville story is a bit of a myth. Even with Mo Couch suspended on the defensive line, Tennessee has some decent weapons up front defensively. Oregon will stack the line and dare Justin Worley to make plays. ET, Longhorn Network

4. to 12 p.m. Doubt me? Ask Northwestern.

The game of the year. Ohio State at California, 7 p.m. Remember, Vandy almost pulled off the upset in last year’s season opener. Toss in injuries for Texas on offense, and I really think Ole Miss could not just win this game but own it.

You all have FS1. This is one of several 7 p.m. This is a massive game for Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen. I tend to think Ole Miss and Vandy are both good teams, and I think we’ll find that out this weekend.

8. Alabama at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. . It’s 1620 on Comcast. ET, ESPN

3. This is way too many points for the Commodores to be giving up to South Carolina. But can he avoid complete disaster? I think so.

It’s hard to know which game will be the best.

7. Nothing more needs to be said.

This will be the win that makes Hugh Freeze a household name among college football fans.

If the rape trial and investigation weren’t hanging over Vandy’s football team, this would be my upset pick of the week. Both are equally likely.

But at -28?

Vanderbilt at South Carolina -13.5

I expect South Carolina to win this game, but I think Vandy will keep it close.

War Eagle.

In Gus Malzahn I trust.

Nearly two touchdowns is too many points here.

Louisville -14 at Kentucky


Can y’all finish strong? Come on, I’m up at 4:30 a.m. ET, FOX

5. (Which happens every day anyway on Twitter, but still, I’ll deserve it for not picking Louisville to destroy a bad Kentucky team.)

9. In the game of the year, A&M’s the bet.

1. The Longhorns won’t play that poorly again, but Ole Miss is much better offensively than BYU is. Not great, but not that bad either.

. PT, and I’ll last through all these games. Start off with us on “FOX College Saturday” from 10 a.m. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn can start off his Auburn coaching career 3-0

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